What do you look for in a bookmaker when you are deciding what sports to bet on? Most experienced punters will agree that getting the best odds is one of the most important things to look for. Grinding out a profit over the long haul is tough enough without having to deal with bad lines. They will also agree that having the widest range of sports betting markets and wagering options it key. After all, what is the point of picking a sportsbook that only offers football betting when you want to place wagers on cricket? What’s the point of signing up with a bookie that only offers NFL betting when you are a college football nut?
Sports betting appeals to the smart bettor because it does not have a fixed house edge for the casinos. Sports betting requires more skill than luck and is similar to live poker. You do not win every time but the skilled handicapper has a huge advantage over the recreational bettor. How sports betting can be a profitable investment involves an understanding of numbers, odds and sports.
"Romo has started two games after making his first 588 career appearances as a reliever. But he was doing so on consecutive days, with the express purpose of clearing the top of the Angels’ lineup before making way for pitchers—normally starters—who would give Tampa Bay more innings. Romo was technically starting, but not in the traditional sense of the term. He was opening—the games, and, perhaps, a futuristic path to ordering a pitching staff" Ray stated.
Believe it or not, some people really do bet on sports for a living. Maybe they work part time at a sportsbook or in some other marginal job in the casino industry, but there is a group of gamblers who bet on sports for their life’s work. With all the math swirling around in our heads after the last bit of the article, it’s hard to imagine anyone wanting to do this for a living.
These recreational bettors account for the majority of people who bet on sports, but there are also plenty of people who bet primarily to make money. This doesn’t mean that they don’t still enjoy themselves, it’s just that their motivations are different. They generally put a lot more thought into the wagers that they make, and dedicate some time to researching and analyzing the various factors that can affect the outcome of games and events.
Most losers base their judgement on a subjective feel for the forthcoming event, relying on an inkling or a hunch about what may happen. The skilled tipsters has a huge advantage over the recreational bettor, finding “value” in the odds, where the true chance of a win is greater than that estimated by the bookmaker. Many punters fail to appreciate the importance of value betting, preferring to subscribe to the “back winners, not losers” school of gambling, which will not make you win 57%.
Wow, 2018 flew by and was a great year in sports overall. We enjoyed a lot of success with the free picks here at The Sports Geek and have grown our great team of handicappers. 2019 is shaping up to be a great year with new experts joining the team and a new website to launch early in the year. We will continue to grow our Daily Fantasy Sports section of the website, which has really taken off in the last year. We are looking forward to helping you have a successful and enjoyable 2019!
We will say that online sports betting may not be legal where you live, so please check your local laws before placing bets online at these sports betting sites. And we also want to point out that there have been “scam” type sites in the past known to steal money from their bettors, so make sure you stick with recommended betting sites we list here at The Sports Geek.
“When markets become more competitive, prices fall,” says Moskowitz, who was rooting for perennial disappointment England in last Wednesday’s match, because one side of his family is English. He’s typically more hard-headed when he thinks about sports, as shown in the 2011 bestseller “Scorecasting” that he co-authored with Sports Illustrated writer Jon Wertheim, applying economic analysis to sports. A popular working paper by Moskowitz studied sports betting markets for the asset pricing anomalies that we know and love in financial markets.

The 10% vig is hard enough to overcome in itself, and placing wagers without solid reasoning and a decent edge is going to chip away at your bankroll and cut into bottom-line profits. There’s a reason why there are so many betting markets available at online sportsbooks, many of which are highly juiced and unbeatable. They know gamblers love the action of betting sports and they’re hoping to entice them to wager more. Don’t fall for this trap.
Even though most sports bettors are losers in their own right (as a whole, bettors actually win an average of only 48% of their bets – less than they would expect to win if they just flipped a coin for every game), their losses are compounded by the fact that the house takes a cut of winnings, also known as the ‘juice’ or ‘vig.’ Most sports books charge a 10% commission on wins, which means that a bettor must actually win 52.4% of his games just to break even. (Wagering $100 per game, a bettor loses $100 with a loss and wins $90.91 with a win, so he must go 11-10 (11/21 = 52.38%) to break even).
Most European oddsmakers – and some in the U.S. – post odds and take bets on snooker, a British billiards-style game played with a cue on a felt-covered table. Gamblers can bet on tournaments, head-to-head matchups and proposition bets. Betting on the game calls for an understanding of it. But Murphy says by studying it for a while, he came to understand that oddsmakers in the U.S. didn’t have a good handle on it, so hitting just a couple of long-odds underdog bets would pay off.
Taken at face value, it sounds as if the AAF is primed to offer the fantasy equivalent of in-game prop betting. That model is currently being deployed with varying level of success by operators such as Boom Fantasy and Fanamana’s InGame Fantasy. However, as a proprietary offering of a professional sports league, it would seemingly qualify as a first.

A three paragraph passage in his article noted that "Rays pitcher Sergio Romo struck out the side against the Angels on Saturday, then struck out three more batters in 1 1/3 innings the following afternoon. It was an unusual pairing of performances for one small reason: Romo had never struck out three batters on consecutive days before. And it was an unusual pairing of performances for one massive, potentially paradigm-shifting reason: Romo served as the modern era’s first designated “opener.”
The second question to ask yourself is: What is my betting style? Are you already winning more than you lose and putting away your winnings? Is your bankroll steadily growing, or it is going downhill consistently and requiring you to re-deposit every week? Remember, betting on sports should be fun and if you’re losing money because you’re not making the right picks, then using the services of a professional handicapper could be a good idea to help you recoup some of your lost dollars.
Our expert handicapper’s main goal is to provide our members with knowledgeable sports betting advice that he draws from his past sports experiences, as well as various assortments of intangible factors, historical figures, statistics, and a wide array of trends all as a means by which to increase their bankroll.  Though this formula cannot be released you can feel confident that comprised of dozens of essential tools that ultimately ensure its success rate.
At the 2010 PGA Championship with the PGA officials, Johnson was issued a controversial two-stroke penalty on the 18th hole Sunday in what was one of the most bizarre rules gaffes in decades. Johnson was ruled to have grounded his club in a bunker, but it was more like dirt and a waste area that the crowd had been walking on and standing in during the tournament. Needing only a par on the final hole to win, the penalty cost Johnson the golf tournament.
My long term percentage on College Football Best Bets is 56% (1290-1017-40 over 29 years) and the new NFL play-by play model was 100-69 (59.2%) in 2016. However, despite being a combined 148-107 (58.0%) on Football Best Bets, college and NFL, in 2016, I will continue to use 55% winners as a realistic goal going forward. If I expect 55% on 200 Football Best Bets (I had 255 last year, which was higher than expected) then the expected profit at -110 odds would be 200 x (0.55 – (1.1 x 0.45), which is +11.0 units (or +22.0 Stars if my average Best Bet is rated 2-Stars). The Kelly Criterion recommends a wager of 3.4% of your bankroll for a wager with a 55% chance of winning and odds of -110. However, the Kelly formula assumes sequential betting and sports betting usually involves simultaneous betting, which is part of the reason behind using some fraction of full Kelly to reduce risk. If I play 2.0% of my initial bankroll per bet, or 1.0% per Star, (i.e. flat betting) then my expected return during football season (5 months) is 22.0%. Adjusting your bankroll after each week rather than flat betting will increase your expected return, as explained in the KC simulation section of my money management section.

Sports betting appeals to the smart bettor because it does not have a fixed house edge for the casinos. Sports betting requires more skill than luck and is similar to live poker. You do not win every time but the skilled handicapper has a huge advantage over the recreational bettor. How sports betting can be a profitable investment involves an understanding of numbers, odds and sports.
Under no circumstances do we advise using a local bookie. The reason is two-fold. The first being that you would be breaking state law and put yourself and that bookie in legal trouble. The second being that your money isn’t very secure with them. With offshore betting sites, you have the security of knowing that they are regulated in their home country and that they offer 24/7 customer support via phone and online.
The longer I have been betting, the more I have come to fall in love with the team that nobody likes. In fact, I feel better about a potential bet the uglier it looks on paper. Sounds counter intuitive I know, but the less the general public likes a team, the more I like the look of them in terms of betting value. Especially a team that might have performed well over a long period but may have had a bad run of maybe 4 or 5 games. Just watch the general public jump off them, and watch their value rise.
Then the playoffs begin! We’re prepping for the season by researching for our upcoming series of team, division, and league previews, which will be published during spring training, and offering insights into the upcoming season with various articles such as our recent piece on five of the top starting pitchers on which you may want to bet in 2018.
It does not take a mathematician to use this system and it will give you a great chance to be successful. But it does take a special type of person to be able to maintain the discipline to use sports betting money management system throughout the course of a six-month football season. Your bookie counts on you to value greed and expects you to reload often during the football season. Be a real player and manage your sports betting like you would a business. If you follow this system you will be pleasantly surprised with your bankroll come February. Many players that make a living wagering on sports use a strong money management similar to this. Be a smart player, and do not let the bookie control you hard earned cash. If you have any questions please feel free to give me a call at (866) 238-6696 or email service@docsports.com
Before I delve into rigorous explanations of how a bettor can gain an advantage against the point spread, it is important to understand what the spread actually represents. Point spreads were invented to keep bettors interested in games between teams of different talent levels – if a perennial powerhouse like Alabama plays a mid level team such as South Alabama, you’ll find very few people willing to bet on which team will win the game since Bama would be such a prohibitive favorite. However, most are willing to bet on whether Alabama will ‘cover the point spread’ and win by a certain number of points. If the point spread is 21.5, then the Crimson Tide must win by 22 or more points for their side of the bet to cover, while South Alabama must either win outright or lose by 21 points or less to cover their side. Point spreads are designed so that the probability of each outcome is roughly equal, and are generally set so as to approximate the median score differential between the two teams at the given site of the game.
As in the stock market, sports bettors suffer from psychological tendencies that create value and momentum opportunities. In the main, investors and sports bettors overreact to new information, such as a stock’s recent price moves or a team’s spell of bad-luck losses. “People tend to think that recent performance is a better predictor of the next game’s performance,” he says, “when, in reality, the long-term quality of the team is a much better indicator.”
As to long term rates can be attributed to political battles where players are eyeing the political developments trying to predict the developments in different countries. Already today it is possible to put on the United States presidential election of 2020, and Donald trump is one of the favorites, as well flashed the name Michelle Obama, but that is nothing more than “fake,” but mark Zuckerberg can struggle for a place of honor in the White house.
As the name suggests long-term bets spread over a longer period of time. If you like, you could call them the opposite of live bets. Long-term bets are offered for all possible sports, whether it's football, tennis, basketball, ice hockey, Formula 1 or winter sports. The bet is used for longer, season spreading formats - therefore the name. Popular examples would be EURO or World Cup qualifications or final rounds, leagues, cup competitions or other tournaments. The classic long-term bet aims at betting on the winner of the chosen format/competition. Therefore one often speaks of championship bets in football or other sports. For example you can bet on who will win the German Bundesliga, the Premier League, but also tournaments like the Chmapions League or the DFB Cup. A long-term bet in tennis for example would be betting on the winner of a certain Grand Slam tournament like Wimbledon. This principle works analogically for all other sports: Who will be Formula 1 world champion? Who will win the biathlon total world cup? Long-term bets are usually placed before the season starts or before the championship or the respective tournament kicks off, because then you get the best odds. Of course you can also place them in the course of a certain competition. You can for example bet on the final winner in the semi final. Then four teams or players are still left to choose. Remember: Bookmakers react to the intermediate result and adapt the odds accordingly. The profit calculation works as usual: The betting stakes are multiplied by the betting odds. An example for a long-term bet, where you bet on the winner of a competition would be a tip on the winner of the total world cup in Alpine skiing:
The two rules listed and explained above govern the sports bettors who will win or have the best chance to win money over time. You must win 52.38% of your bets at -110 odds to break even. So winning 53% of your bets is great because you didn’t lose anything and won something which if you bet year-round, that will build over the years and you have then done what very few people on earth can do and beat the books. A 55% winning percentage will yield a very nice profit for a season. My best college football season ended with a 62.4% winning percentage which left me with a very nice profit. But that’s with the work put in and the risk of losing a lot of money (you can lose even with all the work, data analysis and belief in the world so when you lose, it shouldn’t bother you as this is just the reality of betting sports).

The application process is far from just providing standard information. Many applications have been rejected with about 10% being approved. The application process is an attempt to secure very personal and private information about the applicant and any investor willing to endure such scrutiny and invasion of privacy. This would include a background check, source of funds invested and other customer data which is given to a sports book willing to accept the entity betting. In other words, a lot of red tape. If any prospective investors are not dismayed by the application process, there are other alarming issues to confront.
The entity or fund manager can take US investors and can charge fees or commissions for managing the fund. This includes placing the bets and where to allocate the funds for future investments. No investor can make a bet through the fund. It is a private hedge fund for sports betting with a different format than the current sports advisory business of selling picks to subscribers.

Utah is dealing with cluster injuries at point guard again.  Ricky Rubio has been downgraded to “out’, dealing with a hip injury.  Raul Neto has a bad hamstring, still out as well.  Dante Exum hasn’t played since the first week of January.  He’s expected to return to the floor tonight – a desperation move – and be able to defend Russell Westbrook and Dennis Schroeder.  I’m not expecting that matchup to work in Utah’s favor, to put it mildly.
You can sort of do this yourself, but it’s not quite so easy. Fortunately you don’t need to take advantage of this profit source so much as ensure it’s not a profit drain. One method to do this is to cut out the middleman by placing your bets on an exchange like Betfair where you can actually act as a price-maker rather than a price-taker. Because it’s an exchange, you can’t always get paid to put on the bets you want, but sometimes you can, and overall you definitely pay much less to play than you would if you went to a traditional bookie. You can also reduce the vig by shopping around and betting with the best priced bookie, rather than going to the same place for all your bets.
With the popularity of online sportsbooks increasing there is no doubt that the Las Vegas sportsbooks are losing a little bit of business, but they are always going to bring in some great numbers for casinos. I do my sports betting online daily of course, but I love making a trip down to Vegas to bet on some sports and have some fun, and I know a lot of sports bettors are the same.
It‘s amazing that many of us run or work within successful businesses backed by good ethics and a sound money management theory, but refuse to use these same techniques when it comes to sports betting money management. Would you bet 25 percent of your retirement fund on a single stock that had a 40 percent chance of going in the tank tomorrow? Would you invest in a real estate development under the same scenario? Nobody would do either of these propositions, yet many people are willing to bet 20 to 30 percent of their betting resources a single game. The books know that most of us lack discipline and that greed, sooner or later, will get the best of the gambler and that some early returns for the bettor will likely eventually swing to big profits for the bookmaker.
On December 7, 1980 the San Francisco 49ers overcame a halftime deficit of 28 points in what became the greatest regular season comeback victory in NFL regular season history. By the beginning of the third quarter, notorious Vegas bookmaker Frank Rosenthal received forfeiture notices from 246 San Francisco bettors totaling more than $25,000 in premature winnings. Rosenthal was able to retain these winnings despite the final outcome of the game due to gambling regulations previously established by the NAGRA.[citation needed]
Let's get this out of the way up front - while the Round of 16 was a classic in terms of play on the field, it was far less classic for me from a betting perspective. It was a case of close but not close enough in most cases - and then I picked Spain, which didn't go well at all. Really, that has been the case for this entire World Cup - I've been mostly pointing in the right directions, but just not right enough to make a profit. But that changes now. We are going to destroy this quarterfinal round. It's fate. Or something. And we are going to be fearless about it and make a pick in each of the four games. Go big or go home. (All odds are from Bovada): Read More >>
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