For sports bettors, the vig is more expensive than the spreads on a typical Wall Street stock trade. But the growth of online betting—mostly illegal in the U.S.—has started to shrink the vig below 10% in some places, which should eventually make betting a better deal for bettors. That’s what you’d expect, says Toby Moskowitz, a professor of finance at the Yale School of Management and one of the principals with the $226 billion hedge fund manager AQR Capital Management.
Reason number two that the bookie wins: He “charges” people to bet. The odds that he offers don’t add up to an implied probability of 100%, the remainder being potential profit for the bookie (known as the “vig” in the US). Depending on the event he might be charging a couple of percentage points (so on average he’ll make $2 for each $100 bet) to a couple of hundred percentage points (so on average he’ll make $200 for each $100 bet). It depends on his certainty around his estimate, how dodgy he is, how dumb he thinks his punters are, how much competition he has, and so on.
It‘s amazing that many of us run or work within successful businesses backed by good ethics and a sound money management theory, but refuse to use these same techniques when it comes to sports betting money management. Would you bet 25 percent of your retirement fund on a single stock that had a 40 percent chance of going in the tank tomorrow? Would you invest in a real estate development under the same scenario? Nobody would do either of these propositions, yet many people are willing to bet 20 to 30 percent of their betting resources a single game. The books know that most of us lack discipline and that greed, sooner or later, will get the best of the gambler and that some early returns for the bettor will likely eventually swing to big profits for the bookmaker.
This is a relatively new one for sports bettors to deal with, as many online sportsbooks now have casino-style gaming, which is too much for some sports bettors, including some very good sports bettors, to walk away from. It's not unheard of for a solid sports bettor to generally show a profit each week, but give that money back, plus a little extra, playing the casino games their sportsbooks offer.
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Value betting is a pretty simple concept. You use sharp bookmakers (those that don’t limit winning players) as an indicator for value. What I mean by this is that if the bookmaker Pinnacle is offering Man Utd at 2.0 to beat West Ham. Whilst Stan James has Man Utd priced 2.15 for the same game. We can estimate that Stan James are offering us a value bet.
The cost of my College football service is $895, the cost of the NFL service is $995 ($1,595 for both services), my Basketball service is $895 ($2,195 for all Football and Dr. Bob’s Basketball service), and the NBA Guru subscription is well worth the $1495 given how profitable he’s been ($3,295 for all Football and all Basketball, including the NBA Guru). You must factor in that cost when calculating your expected return on investment (ROI). As explained above, winning 55% on the Football Best Bets and 53.5% on my Basketball Best Bets would yield an expected profit of +45.5 Stars and let’s assume the NBA Guru profits +27.2 Stars as well (he’s averaged +27.2 Stars per season). Let’s say you decide to play 1.0% of your initial bankroll per star on the Football Best Bets and NBA Guru Best Bets and 0.8% per star on the Basketball Best Bets, as in the example above. Doing so would have an expected total return 68.0% per year based on flat-betting using your initial bankroll. Using an optimal betting strategy, as explained in the advanced money management section, would yield even higher long term returns while protecting the downside risk in the inevitable negative variance seasons that plague even the best long term handicappers.
In November 2014, a poll found that there had been a major shift in attitudes towards sports betting in the United States, showing that 55% of Americans now favored legal sports betting, while 66% of respondents agreed that this should be regulated by state laws, as opposed to federal legislation. The poll also suggested that 33% of respondents disagreed with the notion of legalization.
So, one of the first things you need to consider when deciding which sports to bet on is whether you want to bet on the mainstream sports or the minor ones. There are pros and cons either way, as we’ve just explained. You also need to consider a few other things too, and we’ll get to those later. Before that, let’s look at how betting on one sport compares to betting on many.
In order to beat the juice and win in sports betting, a bettor must employ a disciplined approach in their analysis of each game using methods that have proven to be successful in the long run. I discuss my math models and analytical metrics in my Handicapping Methods essay, but you must realize that only the best and most knowledgeable handicappers can win more than 52.4% of their games. In their 2007 two page article about my handicapping success, the Wall Street Journal wrote, “…fewer than 100 people can sustain (win rates of 55%) over time. Most of them belong to professional betting syndicates that hire teams of statisticians, wager millions every week and keep their operations secret.”
Why don’t more people win at sports betting. Like any other endeavor, it takes time, patience and practice to become successful. A person of average intelligence can become a winning handicapper if they have the desire. Based on the odds of -110 for a straight football or basketball bet a handicapper only need to be right 52.38 percent of the time to break even. However, many sports bettors cannot achieve that percentage of winning over the long run.
The DOJ ruling happened “at a very inopportune time” from MLB’s perspective, because some of the potential buyers of the networks “that probably would have been good for our sport” aren’t able to bid on them, Manfred said. He named AT&T Inc. (NYSE: T) and Comcast Corp. (Nasdaq: CMCSA) as two examples. AT&T is in the process of a mega-merger of its own with Time Warner, while Comcast had recently completed a massive acquisition of U.K. media giant Sky.
A rules violation can have an impact on wagering results. Recall when the USGA made a ‘big bogey’ according to USGA CEO Mike Davis when it penalized Dustin Johnson one stroke during the 2016 U.S. Open on a murky new rule that was revised to help players who were grounding their putters while addressing the ball. The USGA’s delayed enforcement created a fiasco.
Frank Sawyer’s Hollywood Sports EASILY DELIVERED their 25* CBB Summit League Game of the Year last night on Purdue-Fort Wayne who defeated South Dakota by 26 points to further a RED HOT 13 of 19 (68%) CBB Sides run along with a 5 of 7 (71%) CBB Game of the Year mark! Now Frank spots ANOTHER OUTSTANDING $$ OPPORTUNITY with a 25* CBB Conference Game of the Year! DO NOT MISS OUT!
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