Think of buying picks from a professional handicapping service as investing in the stock market and not knowing enough about certain funds. You would enlist a broker to help you so you’re not investing your money in a Ponzi scheme. The same goes for sports betting. If you don’t have time to do your research or don’t have enough insight into the sports you want to bet on, using the services of an expert handicapper might be a good option.
In November 2014, a poll found that there had been a major shift in attitudes towards sports betting in the United States, showing that 55% of Americans now favored legal sports betting, while 66% of respondents agreed that this should be regulated by state laws, as opposed to federal legislation. The poll also suggested that 33% of respondents disagreed with the notion of legalization.
Sportsbooks offer all kinds of events to bet on all year long. September brings NFL and college football that runs through January; October brings the NBA and NHL that run through June; November brings college basketball highlighted at the end of the season by March Madness; and the MLB rolls around in April, giving us daily baseball through October.
The positions of the four major American sports leagues (representing American football, baseball, basketball, and ice hockey) have become more complex since their decision to embrace daily fantasy sports (DFS) in 2014, which are described by those within the industry as "almost identical to a casino" in nature. With the contention by critics that such activities blur the lines between gambling and fantasy sports, the endorsement of all four major sports leagues and many individual franchises provided a marked contrast to their positions on betting.
The easiest way to demonstrate the math behind a sports bet is to make up an example. Let’s say you and your buddy walk into a casino, each with $200 burning a hole in your pocket. There’s a big game on tonight, the Cowboys and the Redskins, so you wander into the sportsbook to check up on the latest news about the game. While you’re sitting there, you see the wagering board, with some funny numbers on it. It looks like this:
Football is the most popular sport on Earth and bookmakers take an incredible number of bets on it every year. Almost all bookies offer 24-hour live soccer betting but some do a better job than others when it comes to giving punters the full package. The very best football betting sites post great odds on a huge variety of soccer markets and have regular promotions such as bore draw and other cashback bonuses. For example, if there is a football match being played anywhere then Paddy Power will certainly be offering all sorts of profitable betting opportunities on it. They also have their “2 Up – You Win” promotion that is specifically geared towards football bettors. If the team you bet on takes a two-goal lead at any point in the game then you automatically win. What a great deal for football fans!!
This bookie is a high-volume bookmaker that takes $5,000 bets as routinely as most books take $100 bets. This is a very large and established operation that is best suited for the sophisticated player as well as large recreational players who typically wager $500 per event or more. Use exclusive code “BB878” to ensure you get lucrative welcome bonus.
So you are probably wondering how many bets it is normal to lose. This depends greatly on what kind of events you are betting. If your bets are such that the average odds are under 2/1, you will naturally need to lose less than half of them in order to profit in the long run, but some very successful punters will often place bets on 10/1 or 20/1 outcomes and they expect to lose quite a few of these before finally winning one.
All-everything guard Donovan Mitchell has seen an uptick in his production of late. But even Mitchell's 38 points on 12-of-24 shooting on Friday night wasn't enough for the team to overcome a 114-104 loss to Memphis. Coach Quin Synder and his player personnel are rarely successful unless they defend at a high level. And with the short bench the ability to do so has been an issue. Furthermore it will continue to be such in the latter part of the regular season.
The opposite side to that would be a player like Alphonso Davies, previously of the Vancouver Whitecaps in MLS. Davies is considered not only one of the best up-and-coming players in Canada, but also the world. That was no more evident than when he was purchased by one of the biggest clubs in the world (Bayern Munich) in Germany for over $20 million.
For example, you can bet on the New England Patriots to repeat as Super Bowl champs next season at +700 on FanDuel Sportsbook right now. Last season, by the time there were just eight teams remaining in the NFL playoffs, only the true underdogs to win another game had better odds. In fact, 888 Sport had the Patriots at +600 and listed three other teams with even lower odds.
Patience pays off. It is better off to wait for a promising betting opportunity with high odds at best than to bet on anything. It cannot be recommended to bet on the favorites only. The odds are low and so you collect the wins slowly, while hesitations occur and they can easily put you in the red. Also betting a low amount on a great number of events (the odds are multiplied) can be considered a hobby or waiting for a miracle just like in a lottery.
Before getting into the subject, allow me to stress that although we have used the word gambling, or how to win money gambling several times in this report, we actually never gamble which we define “Count On Chance”. Our aim of playing Sports Betting is to create solid Extra Money based on 6 Advantage Plays by making the best use of mathematical edge to beat the bookies, casino & bingo. When it comes to Sports Betting, we use Matched Betting / Sports Arbitrage / Value Bets On Proven Tipsters to lock-in profit or consistently earn extra income for long-term.
So a look at the second important sports betting rule. Preparation! This includes studying your sport, its teams, players, coaching staffs, schedules, past trends, past results on the field and against the spread betting results, season predictions, matchups, possibilities and various other parts and pieces that really dictate who has the best chance to win a matchup. I mean do I really get in-depth with an Alabama vs the Citadel matchup? No. (I don’t bet Bama anyway as they are my team and can’t have my heart dictating money placement) But if I did, this would only dictate a look into the Citadel offense, injuries and possible matchups because I would just be trying to determine if the Citadel could cover the spread. Trying to predict how much a big team will beat a small school by is a very difficult task due to the amount of variables such as motivation of the big team and its players, who sits out due to a nagging injury due to a certainty of winning, will the big school try different things to see what may work, will they just run and eat up clock (ball control offense) after getting a decent lead, does a coach want to score a lot to have an impressive win margin for playoff consideration or the opposite and have no concern just a win is okay,and when will backups come in. These are very difficult to predict so there is no amount of certainty to what will happen which is a no-go for a seasoned bettor. But you can determine the smaller list above and get some idea of how much the smaller school could score and compare this against an average of scores the big school has put up against average competition over the last 3, 5 or how many ever years you see as an equal to the team this year. If I come up with a good estimation that the Citadel can score 13 on Bama, and Bama has scored an average of 42 points on lower level opponents over Saban’s tenure minus year 1, I can see a spread of 29 points would be my prediction (42–13). The sports books have this game with Bama as a favorite to win but by 21 points (-21 which means Citadel would be +21 point underdogs meaning you win your bet on them if the do anything except lose by more than 21 points, at 21 is a push and will pay back your wager). Should you bet this? No. Because you a prediction that they can or should lose by 29 points. So if the spread was +42 for the Citadel, you should feel safe about taking this spread. This would be the base view of a bet. A big part of preparation and study is to have a predictive index and way to rate teams and matchup types which should not only help to see what teams are best to bet on when comparing your weekly predictions but also which matchups are instant throw aways. The predictive formulas are highly important and vary bettor to bettor based on what each sees as important and what factors they believe contribute most to team wins and their chance to win a bet. I spend some 30–50 hours of data compilation (most intensive and time consuming), advanced statistics and analytics analysis (different from standard data from my perspective), data entry, analyzing the compiled data calculated from my predictive indexes, and finally matchups, lines and spreads from the sports books (near the end right before placing wagers). This is compared against any predictions from odds sites or from message boards on betting sites. That is just a test of how my ideas align with other bettors, and basically another little tiny bit of help. But I would have the teams I see as the best to bet against certain level of opponent in my predictive calcs (so maybe I see Bama, Ohio state and Clemson as tier 1; LSU, Michigan, and USC as tier 2; Kansas State, South Carolina and Virginia Tech as tier 3; down to the final tier of Charolette, Kansas and Rice) the teams all get a +/- score against each tier. This allows me to combine the scores of the two teams in a matchup and see over all the possible matchups at a sports book which are the highest on your index meaning the best chance of winning for a team or their chances against the spread. This will usually show me maybe 20 up to 30 matchups which make sense based on my set +/- combined matchup score. From these matchups, I can usually cut down to 12 or less matchups due to the given spreads and odds and seeing the ones that don’t make sense for me or just simply aren’t matchups I have enough knowledge of or belief in. The final matchups are then fully analyzed with a few pages of notes on the matchup. I will pull any and every bit of data I can gather. I have subscriptions to every sports site that offers paid content or any magazines in the area also. It does get expensive but remember it’s a job and you should put all work and money on necessary or your business will fail. These sheets will end in my full matchup analysis based on positional groups, coaching staffs, s&p rankings, and overall player comparison. You can see who will have advantages in specific areas and which of these will be most important to the outcome. If WVU was seen to be better than Tennessee based on their run blocking against Tennessee’s interior defensive line unit, what does that mean to me? Honestly, not much. At best a higher chance of converting on 3rd and short runs to extend drives and time of possession. I know based on my analysis (and just from watching Dana Holgorsen and his offensive philipsophy developed as offensive coordinator at Texas Tech, they will pass early and often) that WVU will live and die by the passing game. So which matchups do I want to focus on? WVU receivers against Tennessee defensive backfield, WVU offensive tackles (and whole line) vs Tennessee pass rush, Tennessee mid-level defense (5–15 yards past line of scrimmage or dependent on linebacker and possibly up safety depth) against underneath passing game of WVU, WVU 3rd down passing offense (1–3 yds, 4–7 yds and 8+ yds) against Tennessee 3rd down defensive unit. I will want to see WVU have a huge advantage in each of these matchups. From my work this year, WVU has a gigantic advantage in WR unit vs the Tennessee backfield, a large advantage against the Tennessee pass rush on the outside and a small advantage against interior pressure, WVU should see success in the underneath passing game and the 3rd down passing offense should see average to slightly below average conversion percentage. I see the biggest advantage and most glaring in this contest to be the WVU receivers against Tennessee backfield (and Will Grier will be a huge catalyst and positive against Tennessee) which is a troubling fact for Tennessee as WVU throws at an above average amount every game. They have a deep-threat and seemingly uncoverable WR from inside to slightly outside the red zone in David Sills V, a sure-handed Gary Jennings who excels at the short to mid-level range, Reggie Roberson who will possibly take the 3rd WR slot and get some underneath work with deep-play speed and finally TJ Simmons (who transfered from Alabama last year and can finally play this season) who has exceptional top-line speed and good strength and power for a WR. This will be one of if not the top WR unit in the country. It will be up against a make-shift Tennessee defensive backfield that lost a few players and are trying out freshman and returning players with little experience for positions. They will use a new defensive scheme under new coach Jeremy Pruitt who lives by the 3–4 base defense. But he will also put a 4th down lineman at times if the rush is constantly succeeding. Tennessee has been running a 4–3 base defense so they will be learning an entirely new defensive concept which requires forgetting prior assignments to learn new ones which will most likely show especially early in the season when guys forget or blow assignments or simply don’t have field awareness yet. This will be helped with another guy in pass-protection (may be just an extra pass-rusher also) with the 3–4, but this will be a player who is covering an area that he has never been tasked with. Even the best cornerback on the team (CB1 who usually covers the other teams best WR so WR1) may not be very good at covering WR3 or the slot receiver bacause you must have quick lateral movement, instincts of when jump routes, quick decision-making and sure tackling abilities to play CB3 (could be designated a DB or other various term such as star). Those traits are not as important or needed on the outside. So back to the matchup, WVU could eat up the short to mid yardage passes which will pull the defense up and then strike with a deep shot. They could eat up Tennessee with deep passes calling for a need to drop another defender into coverage allowing WVU to establish the run or eat up yardage underneath the coverage. Basically, they can do what they want and Tennessee will have problems. Tennessee has a barren pass rush after losing their leading pass-rushers who combined for 8.5 sacks last year as return 4 sacks from last years line. So with little change and an experienced WVU offensive line with solid returning numbers, the outlook is an issue getting pressure and low concern about allowing sacks. Will Grier does most work from the pocket and gets a bit shaky on mechanics outside of the pocket or on the run (but still better than most) so this hurts to not be able to take advantage of this. So with this and the fact that the Tenn offense will struggle due to lack of talent, middling qb play, suspect run game and no established offensive philosophy (they will try a lot in this game and keep at what works maybe even move players around); I have come to a prediction that WVU should win. And with a margin that I feel has the highest chance of falling in the 9–14 point range. This could very well be a 14–24 point win though. I was able to get this bet placed taking WVU with a spread of -6 at -110 odds. With my heavy belief in this outcome and from my analysis saying it makes sense, I bet $5000 on this matchup. This would produce a $9,545.45 payout ($4,545.45 profit) and my belief is that I am getting more than 3:1 on my money (75% chance of winning) so everything makes sense and this bet is the kind I want to find. Note: -6 isn’t a spread offered anymore, I got this quite a while back. It’s now at -9 to 10.5.
You don’t need physical toughness but need strong mental discipline. Allow me to remind you of the importance of the “Character” we talked first. The real critical thing is Know Yourself and fostering the proper “Character”. As proven by numbers, you need only 57% win rate. Means you are allowed to loose 43%. However loosing in nearly half of betting can be quite tough experiences for some people, and feel intolerable. Pinnacle writer describes it Patience (as explained before Pinnacle is a must bookmaker for professional punters, so again strongly suggest see our Pinnacle full review). Thus quitting or do aggressive betting to recover loss quickly. That’s why we keep stressing that you should Know Your Level of Tolerance and develop proper “Character” to control the basic 1. – 4. points defined at the beginning. You need Character to ignore variance but focus on the long-term profit by believing mathematical advantage expressed in +EV.
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West Virginia and Marshall both argued in favor of receiving a small integrity fee when the state of West Virginia debated sports betting, but the final bill did not include any such royalties for schools or professional sports leagues. According to an ESPN.com report, universities including Connecticut, Rutgers, and Missouri have also met with representatives from professional leagues to discuss whether they might be able to receive an integrity fee. So far, no state sports betting legislation has passed while including such payments.
History also remembers many suggestions that after many years of waiting brought the holders of the lucky coupons a lot of wins, although experts believe that even if you bet, it is only an approximation to the minimum, because the wait time is negligible to what’s happening in today’s games and it is likely that to win, the player may not be enough of the money that the player has already been addressed on other events.
Whether people can make a living sports betting or not is a long disputed subject, and discussed everywhere like gambling forum or sports betting for a living reddit. There seems to be 2 obvious facts. First fact is that there actually exists people who live off of sports betting / gambling. The 2nd fact is such people is not many. Have you ever watched the movie of professional gamblers stories “The Hustler”? Paul Newman as Fast Eddie Felson plays the lead role. His dream is to prove himself as the best pool player by beating the most renowned player of all times Minnesota Fats.