Odds are, if you are sports bettor, or just a sports fan who makes occasional bets, you’ve seen ads promoting the handicapper who always win and never loses. These ads are found across the internet from professional handicappers offering you their winning picks for a promotional price. But, is it really worth it to fork out a few bucks for what you hope will be picks that translate to winning bets?
If you want to make money, you need to start with a betting bankroll capable of absorbing losses. If you're going to bet in units, with an average bet of 1 unit, I would recommend a bankroll of at least 50 units. Minimum. OK so maybe you can only afford a bankroll of $1000, which means your average unit will be $20. Sounds small time I know and you want to be a high roller. Well a $1000 bankroll can quickly turn into a substantial amount with consistent value recognition and an intelligent staking plan. Lets say you bet 200 bets a year. And for argument sake lets say they are all of 1.90 odds, and lets say you hit at a 54% strike rate. Well with a fractional Kelly staking plan at the end of those 200 bets, depending on your winning consistency which should even out over a long term, your bankroll will be in the ballpark of $1100.00. Yeah I hear what you're saying - that's only 100.00 profit over the year. Well, that's just betting 200 bets a year, with a 2.6% average return per bet.
Odds for different outcomes in single bet are presented either in European format (decimal odds), UK format (fractional odds), or American format (moneyline odds). European format (decimal odds) are used in continental Europe, Canada, and Australia. They are the ratio of the full payout to the stake, in a decimal format. Decimal odds of 2.00 are an even bet. UK format (fractional odds) are used by British bookmakers. They are the ratio of the amount won to the stake - the solidus "/" is pronounced "to" for example 7/1 "seven to one". Fractional odds of 1/1 are an even bet. US format odds are the amount won on a 100 stake when positive and the stake needed to win 100 when negative. US odds of 100 are an even bet.
The Thunder are faced with a seeding decision before tonight's tip against the Jazz at Vivint Smart. OKC's conundrum is whether they want to sell out in the final month of the regular season by playing their first rotation major minutes or saving their legs for postseason play. A focus on the team's final 16-games of the regular season to remain one of the top four seeds in the West requires playing Russell Westbrook and Paul George in excess of their season average in minutes played. This asking allot considering the pairs 36 minutes per game this season.
There are currently three pre-filed bills ahead of the 2019 legislative session: BR 15, BR 29 and BR 320. That’s indicative of what’s expected to be a legitimately serious push for legalization of various forms gaming in the Bluegrass State in the coming year. Notably, BR 15 calls for the Kentucky Lottery Corporation to establish a sports wagering regulatory infrastructure.
All-everything guard Donovan Mitchell has seen an uptick in his production of late. But even Mitchell's 38 points on 12-of-24 shooting on Friday night wasn't enough for the team to overcome a 114-104 loss to Memphis. Coach Quin Synder and his player personnel are rarely successful unless they defend at a high level. And with the short bench the ability to do so has been an issue. Furthermore it will continue to be such in the latter part of the regular season.
MyBookie.ag is the top sportsbooks online. They have plenty of advantages over their competitors starting with a Welcome Bonus of 50% Up To $1,000. The number of betting markets provided is so vast that MyBookie is the betting site that you can “truly bet on anything.” They offer free credit and debit card deposits. Deposits and withdrawals are also fast and free of charge if you’re using cryptocurrencies.
He's coming off a huge game against Southampton, with two goals and two assists. But Sterling was very quiet in the first game against Shakhtar, finishing with just 5.7 points. He also failed to register a goal or assist in Manchester City's first two Champions League games, against Lyon and Hoffenheim. Silva is the safer play -- he'll probably have many more passes completed, and more chances created. And hopefully he'll pick up a goal and/or assist, too.
AZ §13-3301 encompasses the full stretch of gambling laws in the Grand Canyon state. As of now, there have been no bills introduced to change these laws or to include language specifically prohibiting or allowing residents to gamble on sports. Since the Governor has publicly mentioned his intentions to rework the tribal compact, many believe that Native American casinos will be the only places in the future to wager on sports. However, there has been no mention as to whether or not those casinos will introduce their own betting apps, or allow residents to place their bets online.
I don’t believe that the term ‘gambling’ applies to what I do. I sell information to subscribers, with which they can take positive expectation positions in uncertain markets. With correct financial optimization and bankroll management, long term risks are nominal compared to the risks of investing in other, more conventional markets. Just as a single stock may go up or down in a day, any one team may win or lose a given game. But as long as the investor maintains a long-term perspective, understands variance, and doesn’t over-extend themselves or bet more than they can easily handle, risk can be highly mitigated, and they can earn a very attractive risk adjusted return.
Critical. If you don't understand betting value, walk away. Sure you might be certain that a favourite at odds of 1.45 is going to win, but are the odds being offered giving any value? Plenty of times I've heard casual gamblers say "There's no way this team is going to lose this game." Well they might be legitimate favourites, but is the probability of them winning better than the odds being offered? Betting with this frame of mind is a little like saying an over-priced $2000 wide-screen TV was good value just because you really really really wanted it.
But if you have located true value, then multi's can be tremendous value as you multiply the value into each leg. The issue is of course, locating true value. Everyone who adds a leg to a multi does so because they believe they are finding value. Nobody bets odds that don't represent value to them. But key to creating value multi's is in finding true value or else you're only diminishing your chances of success with each under valued leg you add.
So what is the best theory on money management? There are several methods that have proven successful by many professional gamblers. In speaking to most of these individuals, discipline being the main ingredient. I personally believe that one should never bet more than 20 percent of their season bankroll on any given week. An example would be if a gambler starts with a seasonal bankroll of $5,000. Thus, they will have $1000 (20 percent of your bankroll) to bet with on opening week. If we were to release eight football picks on the first week it would look like this:
These decisions will be easy to make for those who are sports fans first and bettors second. They usually choose to simply wager on all of the sports that they already follow and like to watch. This approach is entirely logical really, as those are the sports that they know and understand best. They’re more likely to enjoy betting on those sports, and their knowledge of those sports will give them a better of chance of winning money.
Cricket has a massive fan base and there are games being played almost every day of the year so you can be sure that bookmakers pay special attention to this sport. Most of the world’s biggest names in online bookmaking ensure that they offer their customers as much cricket action as possible. The best cricket sportsbooks feature pre-match and in-play betting on any league game, international competition, or other major events. It is not uncommon for punters to have several dozen pre-game wagering options to choose from on any given match. Add in all the live betting choices, live streaming, and bonuses like the free bet at Betfred and you have yourself an awesome cricket betting experience.
What do you look for in a bookmaker when you are deciding what sports to bet on? Most experienced punters will agree that getting the best odds is one of the most important things to look for. Grinding out a profit over the long haul is tough enough without having to deal with bad lines. They will also agree that having the widest range of sports betting markets and wagering options it key. After all, what is the point of picking a sportsbook that only offers football betting when you want to place wagers on cricket? What’s the point of signing up with a bookie that only offers NFL betting when you are a college football nut?
In the United States, it was previously illegal under the Professional and Amateur Sports Protection Act of 1992 for states to authorize legal sports betting, hence making it effectively illegal. The states of Delaware, Montana, Nevada, and Oregon—which had pre-existing sports lotteries and sports betting frameworks, were grandfathered and exempted from the effects of the Act.
Croatia and France - the final which, I am confident, no one outside of those two countries could have possibly imagined. Both teams have very much done enough to deserve to be here, though, and they set up to be a great finish to what has been an unpredictable and shockingly good tournament. It has been a wild ride from a betting perspective with so many favorites looking so undeserving of the respect that they were given. Read More >>
The best part about sports betting is that you always have the potential to make some money. Regardless of the size of your bet, you always have the ability to win, which not only feels great but puts a little extra padding into your wallet. This money making does not have to stop with just making a few extra bucks here and there. A lot of people have trained themselves to become professional sports bettors. They have learned how to sift through stats with a keen eye for making correct picks. If you are good at predicting how games are decided, sports betting may be for you.
As to long term rates can be attributed to political battles where players are eyeing the political developments trying to predict the developments in different countries. Already today it is possible to put on the United States presidential election of 2020, and Donald trump is one of the favorites, as well flashed the name Michelle Obama, but that is nothing more than “fake,” but mark Zuckerberg can struggle for a place of honor in the White house.
So a look at the second important sports betting rule. Preparation! This includes studying your sport, its teams, players, coaching staffs, schedules, past trends, past results on the field and against the spread betting results, season predictions, matchups, possibilities and various other parts and pieces that really dictate who has the best chance to win a matchup. I mean do I really get in-depth with an Alabama vs the Citadel matchup? No. (I don’t bet Bama anyway as they are my team and can’t have my heart dictating money placement) But if I did, this would only dictate a look into the Citadel offense, injuries and possible matchups because I would just be trying to determine if the Citadel could cover the spread. Trying to predict how much a big team will beat a small school by is a very difficult task due to the amount of variables such as motivation of the big team and its players, who sits out due to a nagging injury due to a certainty of winning, will the big school try different things to see what may work, will they just run and eat up clock (ball control offense) after getting a decent lead, does a coach want to score a lot to have an impressive win margin for playoff consideration or the opposite and have no concern just a win is okay,and when will backups come in. These are very difficult to predict so there is no amount of certainty to what will happen which is a no-go for a seasoned bettor. But you can determine the smaller list above and get some idea of how much the smaller school could score and compare this against an average of scores the big school has put up against average competition over the last 3, 5 or how many ever years you see as an equal to the team this year. If I come up with a good estimation that the Citadel can score 13 on Bama, and Bama has scored an average of 42 points on lower level opponents over Saban’s tenure minus year 1, I can see a spread of 29 points would be my prediction (42–13). The sports books have this game with Bama as a favorite to win but by 21 points (-21 which means Citadel would be +21 point underdogs meaning you win your bet on them if the do anything except lose by more than 21 points, at 21 is a push and will pay back your wager). Should you bet this? No. Because you a prediction that they can or should lose by 29 points. So if the spread was +42 for the Citadel, you should feel safe about taking this spread. This would be the base view of a bet. A big part of preparation and study is to have a predictive index and way to rate teams and matchup types which should not only help to see what teams are best to bet on when comparing your weekly predictions but also which matchups are instant throw aways. The predictive formulas are highly important and vary bettor to bettor based on what each sees as important and what factors they believe contribute most to team wins and their chance to win a bet. I spend some 30–50 hours of data compilation (most intensive and time consuming), advanced statistics and analytics analysis (different from standard data from my perspective), data entry, analyzing the compiled data calculated from my predictive indexes, and finally matchups, lines and spreads from the sports books (near the end right before placing wagers). This is compared against any predictions from odds sites or from message boards on betting sites. That is just a test of how my ideas align with other bettors, and basically another little tiny bit of help. But I would have the teams I see as the best to bet against certain level of opponent in my predictive calcs (so maybe I see Bama, Ohio state and Clemson as tier 1; LSU, Michigan, and USC as tier 2; Kansas State, South Carolina and Virginia Tech as tier 3; down to the final tier of Charolette, Kansas and Rice) the teams all get a +/- score against each tier. This allows me to combine the scores of the two teams in a matchup and see over all the possible matchups at a sports book which are the highest on your index meaning the best chance of winning for a team or their chances against the spread. This will usually show me maybe 20 up to 30 matchups which make sense based on my set +/- combined matchup score. From these matchups, I can usually cut down to 12 or less matchups due to the given spreads and odds and seeing the ones that don’t make sense for me or just simply aren’t matchups I have enough knowledge of or belief in. The final matchups are then fully analyzed with a few pages of notes on the matchup. I will pull any and every bit of data I can gather. I have subscriptions to every sports site that offers paid content or any magazines in the area also. It does get expensive but remember it’s a job and you should put all work and money on necessary or your business will fail. These sheets will end in my full matchup analysis based on positional groups, coaching staffs, s&p rankings, and overall player comparison. You can see who will have advantages in specific areas and which of these will be most important to the outcome. If WVU was seen to be better than Tennessee based on their run blocking against Tennessee’s interior defensive line unit, what does that mean to me? Honestly, not much. At best a higher chance of converting on 3rd and short runs to extend drives and time of possession. I know based on my analysis (and just from watching Dana Holgorsen and his offensive philipsophy developed as offensive coordinator at Texas Tech, they will pass early and often) that WVU will live and die by the passing game. So which matchups do I want to focus on? WVU receivers against Tennessee defensive backfield, WVU offensive tackles (and whole line) vs Tennessee pass rush, Tennessee mid-level defense (5–15 yards past line of scrimmage or dependent on linebacker and possibly up safety depth) against underneath passing game of WVU, WVU 3rd down passing offense (1–3 yds, 4–7 yds and 8+ yds) against Tennessee 3rd down defensive unit. I will want to see WVU have a huge advantage in each of these matchups. From my work this year, WVU has a gigantic advantage in WR unit vs the Tennessee backfield, a large advantage against the Tennessee pass rush on the outside and a small advantage against interior pressure, WVU should see success in the underneath passing game and the 3rd down passing offense should see average to slightly below average conversion percentage. I see the biggest advantage and most glaring in this contest to be the WVU receivers against Tennessee backfield (and Will Grier will be a huge catalyst and positive against Tennessee) which is a troubling fact for Tennessee as WVU throws at an above average amount every game. They have a deep-threat and seemingly uncoverable WR from inside to slightly outside the red zone in David Sills V, a sure-handed Gary Jennings who excels at the short to mid-level range, Reggie Roberson who will possibly take the 3rd WR slot and get some underneath work with deep-play speed and finally TJ Simmons (who transfered from Alabama last year and can finally play this season) who has exceptional top-line speed and good strength and power for a WR. This will be one of if not the top WR unit in the country. It will be up against a make-shift Tennessee defensive backfield that lost a few players and are trying out freshman and returning players with little experience for positions. They will use a new defensive scheme under new coach Jeremy Pruitt who lives by the 3–4 base defense. But he will also put a 4th down lineman at times if the rush is constantly succeeding. Tennessee has been running a 4–3 base defense so they will be learning an entirely new defensive concept which requires forgetting prior assignments to learn new ones which will most likely show especially early in the season when guys forget or blow assignments or simply don’t have field awareness yet. This will be helped with another guy in pass-protection (may be just an extra pass-rusher also) with the 3–4, but this will be a player who is covering an area that he has never been tasked with. Even the best cornerback on the team (CB1 who usually covers the other teams best WR so WR1) may not be very good at covering WR3 or the slot receiver bacause you must have quick lateral movement, instincts of when jump routes, quick decision-making and sure tackling abilities to play CB3 (could be designated a DB or other various term such as star). Those traits are not as important or needed on the outside. So back to the matchup, WVU could eat up the short to mid yardage passes which will pull the defense up and then strike with a deep shot. They could eat up Tennessee with deep passes calling for a need to drop another defender into coverage allowing WVU to establish the run or eat up yardage underneath the coverage. Basically, they can do what they want and Tennessee will have problems. Tennessee has a barren pass rush after losing their leading pass-rushers who combined for 8.5 sacks last year as return 4 sacks from last years line. So with little change and an experienced WVU offensive line with solid returning numbers, the outlook is an issue getting pressure and low concern about allowing sacks. Will Grier does most work from the pocket and gets a bit shaky on mechanics outside of the pocket or on the run (but still better than most) so this hurts to not be able to take advantage of this. So with this and the fact that the Tenn offense will struggle due to lack of talent, middling qb play, suspect run game and no established offensive philosophy (they will try a lot in this game and keep at what works maybe even move players around); I have come to a prediction that WVU should win. And with a margin that I feel has the highest chance of falling in the 9–14 point range. This could very well be a 14–24 point win though. I was able to get this bet placed taking WVU with a spread of -6 at -110 odds. With my heavy belief in this outcome and from my analysis saying it makes sense, I bet $5000 on this matchup. This would produce a $9,545.45 payout ($4,545.45 profit) and my belief is that I am getting more than 3:1 on my money (75% chance of winning) so everything makes sense and this bet is the kind I want to find. Note: -6 isn’t a spread offered anymore, I got this quite a while back. It’s now at -9 to 10.5.