Take Under the Total in the game between the Monmouth Hawks and the Iona Gaels. Monmouth (14-20) reached the championship game of the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference tournament with their 73-59 win over Canisius yesterday. The Hawks have then played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. The Under is also 23-10-1 in Monmouth’s last 34 games played on a neutral court. Iona (16-15) joins them in the finals with their 73-57 win over Siena yesterday as a 2-point favorite. That game finished below the 138.5 point total — and the Gaels have played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total after playing a game that finished Under the Total. Iona has also played 13 of their last 20 games Under the Total played on a neutral court as a favorite in the 3.5 to 6 point range. Take the Under. Best of luck — Frank.
Everyone has an opinion on sports in today’s world. There are not only a dozen shows on ESPN and other networks discussing the same topics over and over, but there are thousands of blogs and radio stations also adding their own opinions. It’s fine to watch and read these outlets for entertainment or news purposes, but not for betting advice. The talking heads may seem confident with their opinions, but remember, their job is to increase ratings and spark controversy.
I bet on the Hamilton Tiger Cats yesterday in the CFL. Most people here probably don't follow the CFL but being Canadian, I do. Anyway, Hamilton was 4-5 on the Road. Toronto was 4-5 at Home. The bookies didn't give Hamilton much respect, so the odds were good for me to win. Hamilton paid 2.60 x my bet on a coin flip. Even odds are 1.91 / 1.91 where I bet.
Anything I can make guaranteed profit on. It is a Catch 22 though. The bigger leagues (NFL, NBA, MLB, NHL) have more people wagering on them, so the odds of finding lines that differ between sports books is tougher. This is because the betting line only moves when too many people are wagering on 1 side. A $100 will have little to no impact on a Super Bowl line that already has millions in the pot. As long as Vegas has close to equal action on each side, they profit every time. The lesser known sports, have less money wagered on each game, so it's easier to spot vastly different lines between different sports books.
As a solution I decided to create Sporita, my vision was to create an app that is easy to use and contains each and every possible piece of data from across all major football leagues and competitions. Our self learning algorithm predicts the outcome of football matches by combining a wide range of information such as formations and tactics, team and individual statistics, the coach factor, game day weather and much, much more.
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Consider a sport such as football for example. We can read game reports and study various statistics, and they can definitely tell us something about the strengths and weaknesses of the various teams and players. But watching the games tells us far more and helps us to form solid opinions about how these teams and players are performing. Those opinions are invaluable when it comes it to making predictions about future games.
Touts often claim to be able to hit 60% or higher, but as I explain in my essay on Bayesian Probability, anyone who tells you that their long term expected winning percentage is higher than 60% is deluding themselves. Ten or more years ago a sharp handicapper could win about 60% long term but those days are over, as odds makers have become more savvy in the past decade or so. For a bettor to claim a greater than 60% long term expected win percentage, that would be mean that Vegas would have to consistently release lines with egregious errors, and that simply just does not happen often enough nowadays for claims of a greater than 60% long term expected win percentage. Any short term win rates of around 60% or higher are simply due to blind, short-term luck. For instance, last year (2016) in the first season using a new NFL play-by-play model, Dr. Bob Sports’ NFL Best Bet sides were an incredible 66-26 (71.7%), but that record was enhanced by winning a very large percentage of close games (31-12 on Best Bets decided by 7 points or less) rather than splitting the close ones. It still would have been a great season on NFL Best Bet sides (62%) if the close games had been 50% but I still can’t expect the new model to win 60%-plus on sides based on that one season – although the play-by-play model back-tested at a very profitable 56% winners.
Against the spread (described as ATS in our table) and indicates the win based on picks that are made to conflict with the spread. When it comes to making bets, the spread is the number oddsmakers use to give people other wagering options besides wins and losses. A spread in Italy Serie A is like .5 or 1.5 and suggests that one club would need to lose the match by 1 or 2 goals or the other club would have to win by that same amount. If neither happens, your bet won’t cover the spread and you won’t win your bet.