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But we, as sports fans, know that the mathematics of a sporting event is much more complex. Sports bettors deeply involved in their hobby will subscribe to weather bulletins from major cities that take part in their sport, making huge wagering decisions based on a few mph of wind in one direction or another. Then there’s the unknown—does a player get hurt in the first quarter? Does weather become a factor? Is a particular player “in the zone?”
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Take Under the Total in the game between the Monmouth Hawks and the Iona Gaels. Monmouth (14-20) reached the championship game of the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference tournament with their 73-59 win over Canisius yesterday. The Hawks have then played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. The Under is also 23-10-1 in Monmouth’s last 34 games played on a neutral court. Iona (16-15) joins them in the finals with their 73-57 win over Siena yesterday as a 2-point favorite. That game finished below the 138.5 point total — and the Gaels have played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total after playing a game that finished Under the Total. Iona has also played 13 of their last 20 games Under the Total played on a neutral court as a favorite in the 3.5 to 6 point range. Take the Under. Best of luck — Frank.
There are a couple of stakes, even graded stakes, run at these tracks, yet most of their races are claimers and lower level allowances featuring the same horses in regular intervals. The racing secretaries generally write the conditions around the horses stabled at the track. You will find a lot of conditioned claiming races, like races for non-winners of a number of races in the last year or six months, or optional claiming races. Understanding how these conditions are written is the key to winning these races.
A handicapper gets information from numerous sources and assigns weights and values to the wagering data. They will make their own power ranking and predict what the point spread should be without looking at the official line. They compare their predictions to the line to look for discrepancies. A large amount of data is available via the internet and other sources that the handicapper will read through to find the gems. The use of computer programs can help when searching through the data.
Perhaps you’ve heard of the Super Bowl? If not then you should know that it is one of the biggest annual betting events. American football is like a religion in North America. It hasn’t been as globally accepted as other sports but its popularity is growing. The NFL is the most well-known American football league there is but NCAA college football, the Canadian Football League, and a couple other smaller leagues have large followings and bookmakers take a lot of bets on them, so you will never run out of markets to bet. A fresh list of betting lines is usually up every Sunday night during football season and punters can’t wait to get their bets in.
This is just some broad advice, and you don’t need to follow it to the letter. Remember, we can’t actually tell you explicitly what to do here. There’s no right or wrong decision, as you’ve just got to consider what’s best for you. The information and advice we’ve offered will hopefully help. If you’re still not sure what to do, then just take some time to experiment with the different approaches. Eventually, you’ll find one that works for you.
In the United States, it was previously illegal under the Professional and Amateur Sports Protection Act of 1992 for states to authorize legal sports betting, hence making it effectively illegal. The states of Delaware, Montana, Nevada, and Oregon—which had pre-existing sports lotteries and sports betting frameworks, were grandfathered and exempted from the effects of the Act.
So how difficult is sports betting math? The math behind placing a winning bet is fairly complicated, but the way to stay ahead of the bookmaker is rather straightforward. If you collect on 52.4% of your bets, you’ll break even. We’ll have more details on that number later, including why it takes more than 50% wins to break even, but first some general knowledge about sports gambling and the numbers behind it.
The most important consideration when buying picks is finding veteran handicappers who are true experts in their field and are also known throughout the industry as being the best at what they do. There are “scamdicappers” out there who overly promote themselves with the aim to deceive. These are horrible people who will provide you with false records in hopes of taking your money. Any of the picks services we promote on OddsShark are thoroughly vetted, trustworthy and don’t make false promises. Check out our Top Picks Services pages for Canada and the United States for more information.
The bookmaker functions as a market maker for sports wagers, most of which have a binary outcome: a team either wins or loses. The bookmaker accepts both wagers, and maintains a spread (the vigorish) which will ensure a profit regardless of the outcome of the wager. The Federal Wire Act of 1961 was an attempt by the US government to prevent illegal bookmaking. However, this Act does not apply to other types of online gambling. The Supreme Court has not ruled on the meaning of the Federal Wire Act as it pertains to online gambling.
While meets like Saratoga and Del Mar get all the glory in the summer and other meets, such as the Fair Grounds and Gulfstream, may get the best horses in the winter, the blue collar horses of the industry go out every couple of weeks and race. Tracks like Parx, Penn National and Charles Town race almost the entire year. Other tracks, like Mountaineer, run nine months out of the year and can be treated similarly.
The team points out that this kind of practice could be illegal. “Advertising goods or services with intent not to sell them as advertised, or advertising goods or services with no intent to supply reasonably expectable demand but with the intention to lure the client to buy another product (a practice often called ‘bait’ or ‘bait and switch’ advertising), is considered false advertising and carries pecuniary penalties in the U.K., Australia, and the United States of America,” say the team.
The two rules listed and explained above govern the sports bettors who will win or have the best chance to win money over time. You must win 52.38% of your bets at -110 odds to break even. So winning 53% of your bets is great because you didn’t lose anything and won something which if you bet year-round, that will build over the years and you have then done what very few people on earth can do and beat the books. A 55% winning percentage will yield a very nice profit for a season. My best college football season ended with a 62.4% winning percentage which left me with a very nice profit. But that’s with the work put in and the risk of losing a lot of money (you can lose even with all the work, data analysis and belief in the world so when you lose, it shouldn’t bother you as this is just the reality of betting sports).
Although betting while sober seems like common sense, you’d be surprised how many people bet on sports under the influence. Is it a coincidence that the Las Vegas casinos offer free alcoholic drinks while you are gambling? I don’t think so. I don’t want to sound like your mother here, but betting while under the influence will impair your judgement and should definitely be avoided if you want to become a winning sports bettor.