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How did the NBA top a seven-game series that featured, arguably, its top two players? By having the best player not in the series join forces with the loser. Cavalier fans finally got to enjoy a championship, but the joy was short-lived. Kevin Durant bolted Oklahoma City to team up with Stephen Curry and the rest of the Golden State ... Read More »
Many people believe that the point spread is the predicted margin of victory one team will beat another team. This is not true but a spread number is needed to create wagering on both sides. The line is the handicapper’s prediction of what number will be required to split the wagering evenly on both teams. The line may change a little before game time. The sports books goal is to have the betting as evenly as possible.
Totalizators. In totalizators (sometimes called flexible-rate bets) the odds are changing in real-time according to the share of total exchange each of the possible outcomes have received taking into account the return rate of the bookmaker offering the bet. For example: If the bookmakers return percentage is 90%, 90% of the amount placed on the winning result will be given back to bettors and 10% goes to the bookmaker. Naturally the more money bet on a certain result, the smaller the odds on that outcome become. This is similar to parimutuel wagering in horse racing and dog racing.
There are two key words in sportsbook – information and strategy. Based on information the bookmakers estimate the probabilities of the outcomes of the betting events (e.g. win or loss of a home team, a tie etc.) and offer corresponding odds. Information is important for a better as well to draw a line between good and bad odds. The odds are the main indicator! We will learn how to use it by way of the example below.
The novelty of the bill stems from the fact it does not address the establishment of a brick-and-mortar sports betting market within the state whatsoever (Virginia does not have any casinos, tribal or commercial). Instead, it aims to legalize and regulate sports betting “platforms” that are better defined as a “website, app, or other platform accessible via the Internet or mobile, wireless, or similar communications technology that sports bettors use to place sports bets.”
All gambling is mathematics, even games of chance. If you understand the math behind the game, you understand the game and can give yourself an advantage. For many games, like penny slots or poorly placed roulette bets, are so bad that smart bettors earn their advantage by avoiding them altogether. In sports betting, the math is more complicated. Depending on your favorite sport, you may need to think about things like bye weeks, underdogs, quarterback ratings, and injuries with the same fervor other connoisseurs reserve for fancy winces.
The best part about sports betting is that you always have the potential to make some money. Regardless of the size of your bet, you always have the ability to win, which not only feels great but puts a little extra padding into your wallet. This money making does not have to stop with just making a few extra bucks here and there. A lot of people have trained themselves to become professional sports bettors. They have learned how to sift through stats with a keen eye for making correct picks. If you are good at predicting how games are decided, sports betting may be for you.
Money Management is as critical to a sports investor as picking winners. I have devoted many hours of careful analysis and math to optimal money management systems, which I have painstakingly outlined in my Money Management articles. Sports betting is more high risk (higher volatility and standard deviation of return) than stocks, but also results in a higher return if you follow a proven long term winning handicapper (of which there are very few).
It might not be the most physical pursuit but snooker involves a lot of skill and the steadiest of hands. You may be surprised to know that professional snooker players stand to make millions of dollars over the course of a career. Compared to some other more sports, snooker has a much smaller following. This obviously carries over to the sportsbooks in that they see much less betting action on snooker as they do with football or rugby. Nonetheless, almost every bookie worth their salt offers this game for betting. The best snooker bookmakers make sure that you won’t have to miss out on any betting opportunities. Match betting, correct scores, total frames, and spread bets are just scratching the surface. Aside from picking outright winners in tournaments, punters can usually pick from 20 or 30 propositions on any match. When you pick the right bookie you can also watch live snooker streams and participate in live betting. As always, there is a treasure trove of free bets, money back promotions, and other betting incentives that will give you a leg up on your bookie.
The many different games and ways to bet on them offer bettors a wider pool of options to find their edge. Understanding of a particular game or genre of games can give you an edge when betting against outcomes. If you can find a specialty within esports and learn to make consistently smart and valuable bets on it, you stand to make some serious dough.
It doesn’t matter if you consider darts a sport or a leisure activity. It is quite popular and more and more people find it easier to bet on. One might be inclined to think that darts is a niche market that many bookies don’t take bets on but that would be a mistake. This game is a staple at all of the world’s leading sportsbooks and there are so many darts events throughout the year that punters can place pre-game and live bets almost any time. The best darts betting sites usually have a promotion or two that is geared towards darts bettors. Many of these bookies provide live streaming coverage, betting tips, and other helpful information. These same bookies give punters an excellent selection of payment methods to choose from and they take pride in offering fast payouts.
We are constantly reviewing the picks the team is putting out on a nightly basis to ensure we have only the highest quality information and picks being posted at The Sports Geek. We have certain team members dedicated to each league so that they can keep their focus focus on their handicapping specialties. This allows each writer to specialize in their sports and give out picks with a very solid winning percentage.
The professionals know how to look for the edge and only need to hit a minimum of 54% to make a modest return on investment. Making a 15% to 25% return for the year is very possible. The good ones are few but the results are quick and opportunities exist everyday when soft betting lines are found and exploited. The betting lines are made to divide the betting public. They ideally want even betting on both sides. Their number does come close about 70% of the time.
Take Under the Total in the game between the Monmouth Hawks and the Iona Gaels. Monmouth (14-20) reached the championship game of the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference tournament with their 73-59 win over Canisius yesterday. The Hawks have then played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. The Under is also 23-10-1 in Monmouth’s last 34 games played on a neutral court. Iona (16-15) joins them in the finals with their 73-57 win over Siena yesterday as a 2-point favorite. That game finished below the 138.5 point total — and the Gaels have played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total after playing a game that finished Under the Total. Iona has also played 13 of their last 20 games Under the Total played on a neutral court as a favorite in the 3.5 to 6 point range. Take the Under. Best of luck — Frank.
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For this reason, they can offer a larger deposit and reload bonuses. Taking advantage of bonuses is an absolute must for new bettors, where these extra funds are crucial for beginning bankrolls. Bettors can easily clear thousands of dollars in deposit bonuses at reputable sites in the US market. When you decide to don’t use any deposit bonus, you’re essentially deciding to leave money on the table.
My long term percentage on College Football Best Bets is 56% (1290-1017-40 over 29 years) and the new NFL play-by play model was 100-69 (59.2%) in 2016. However, despite being a combined 148-107 (58.0%) on Football Best Bets, college and NFL, in 2016, I will continue to use 55% winners as a realistic goal going forward. If I expect 55% on 200 Football Best Bets (I had 255 last year, which was higher than expected) then the expected profit at -110 odds would be 200 x (0.55 – (1.1 x 0.45), which is +11.0 units (or +22.0 Stars if my average Best Bet is rated 2-Stars). The Kelly Criterion recommends a wager of 3.4% of your bankroll for a wager with a 55% chance of winning and odds of -110. However, the Kelly formula assumes sequential betting and sports betting usually involves simultaneous betting, which is part of the reason behind using some fraction of full Kelly to reduce risk. If I play 2.0% of my initial bankroll per bet, or 1.0% per Star, (i.e. flat betting) then my expected return during football season (5 months) is 22.0%. Adjusting your bankroll after each week rather than flat betting will increase your expected return, as explained in the KC simulation section of my money management section.
So how difficult is sports betting math? The math behind placing a winning bet is fairly complicated, but the way to stay ahead of the bookmaker is rather straightforward. If you collect on 52.4% of your bets, you’ll break even. We’ll have more details on that number later, including why it takes more than 50% wins to break even, but first some general knowledge about sports gambling and the numbers behind it.
Picks services are, as we stated above, companies that offer predictions on different sports for a small fee. There are mixed feelings in the sports betting world about picks services. But, they can help bettors who are looking for more information about why they should bet on a certain game, fight, race, pitcher etc. Although pay-for sports picks sites have gotten mixed reviews over the years, there are many trustworthy companies who won't take your money and run. Any site we champion on OddsShark gets our seal of approval.
Ray Wallin is a licensed civil engineer and part-time handicapper who has had a presence on the Web since 2000 for various sports and horse racing websites and through his personal blog. Introduced to the sport over the course of a misspent teenage summer at Monmouth Park by his Uncle Dutch, a professional gambler, he quickly fell in love with racing and has been handicapping for over 25 years.
To make another basketball analogy, imagine if the Golden State Warriors played an NBA regular season game one day, then a few days later played a tournament game against a team from the American Professional Basketball League or NBA G League. This is under the fictional assumption that the G League was not affiliated with the NBA and that a tournament where every American team from any league could participate in existed.
On the flip side, I bet sports as basically a second income. I am very thankful to have a job in engineering that affords me the opportunity to bet enough to accomplish this and leaves me a safety net to lose what I put in and be okay. Just an example is for college football season this year (2018), I put in $10,000 for the regular season. I can do what I want within the season with that but will not buy back in. I also will never exceed $10,000 in bets at one time. My account will always be viewed as having $10,000 during this season because I never want to bet more because I have won and have profits. That is a common problem for gamblers and it really is difficult to avoid the thought of well I can make so much more if I bet this much more. It is 100% true that money management is the most important aspect of sports betting. If you can’t do this well, you may get into serious financial trouble at worst, and less important but still relevant, you will not be able to beat the sports books constantly or over time without understanding which bets make sense by realizing how much to bet, which lines to bet and which matchups offer the highest win and payout percentages. Most hobby betters bet based on how much they can win in a bet, a handicapper or shark bets where they are getting the best odds for their money. Maybe they don’t even believe in the team to win, but if the value makes sense, they will wager on it because it makes sense financially. So an example is you have $2000 and want to bet on at most two games. The average person would tend to bet on as many outcomes as possible but in this case would take two teams and we will say standard line of -110. What has happened is that you have really damaged your chance of making a profit on this bet. This is due to beginning each matchup with a basic, implied odds of 52.38% which means you have this % chance to win one game. This comes from the line of -110 (if it was -100 or even odds, you would have a 50% chance to win) which converts to 1.91 decimal odds. You divide 1 (one bet) by the decimal % (1/1.91) and get 52.38%. So on two games, at -110, you will have 13/5 fractional odds (just an example here) to win or 2.6 decimal odds so you should divide 1 by 2.6 which gives you 38.46% implied odds to win both bets. What would the bets pay out? Win one at $1000 with -110 (1.91 decimal odds so 1.91*1000=payout) and you get $909.09 profit from the win and a total back of $1909.09 with your bet amount returned. So maybe you can see why 2 bets wouldn’t be a great investment. If not, here’s why. Say you win just 1 of the two matchups, you get the payout of $1909.09 so you have lost money on your bets for the day. And with only a 38% chance to win (usually will be a little less maybe a little more depending on the odds and line) both bets and taking $1818.18 in profits, you are not going to beat those percentages over time which is the only thing that matters to a professional bettor. Putting all of your money on one outcome offers the best chance to win and the same payout amount so obviously you are getting a better return on your money and will have a better chance to walk away with a profit at season’s end. So this is a very simplistic example and doesn’t take into account lines or the options of taking the points for an underdog with a decent positive moneyline. Just a rule to state here: never bet more than you can afford to lose or care about losing.
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